It's been ages.

"thisoldman, you can believe what you want to believe, but without either of us having a background in epidemiology, I'll stick with the experts. And we don't need to follow the money... we can just follow the numbers. According to the CDC, an average flu year kills 56k people in the U.S. Yet, while much of the country shut down and people practiced social distancing, we've had over 111,000 deaths in less than five months (or more than 4x the mortality rate of the flu). If the country did not do these things, the estimated U.S. deaths could be 1-2 million people."

I'm not going to beleaguer or beat a dead horse. Period. However, if an "expert", or the media, or someone from the gov't told me the sky was blue on a cloudless day I'd go outside and look to make sure.

Follow the money will connect the dots. It will also show that hospitals receive *special* funding for every case they *claim*- and, let's not, for one second, see where most of the "stimulus" money went. Hint: It isn't private citizens. Follow the money.
And let's throw this in the mix- where did that stimulus money come from? Follow the money. Connect the dots. Who is most affected/effected by debt? Follow the money. Connect the dots.

Fear is a great tool to control masses. If it ain't one thing it's another one on the way.
Who/what gains in importance selling with fear? Follow the money. Connect the dots.

Now,anyone who chooses to call me whatever can, and likely will, and actually have other places. It won't change the facts and I don't claim to be an expert- I am however very observant and analytical and *always* choose to err on the side of Liberty. I *have been* analyzing for a long, long time and erring on Liberty's side for most of my 50 cognizant years (I'm 72 and giving benefit of the doubt to cognizant)

My math was simply taking 56k in a year (flu) vs. 111k in five months (COVID). If you maintain that pace, and all indications are that it's not slowing down here, then you'd end up at 266k for the year (111k / 5 months x 12 months in a year). This would be 4.75x the death rate of the flu, rounding up to 5x, since it was less than five months.

The actualized numbers above are with social distancing and other considerable measures in place (basically, we shut down major parts of normal life for 3+ months to minimize exposure and spread of the virus). If we did not act on those measures (and did nothing), then the cases would sharply increase. At a point, the hospitals reach capacity, and the deaths stop moving on a linear increase b/c they run out of ICU beds and ventilators. So, the mortality rate increases from what we're seeing to a much higher percentage. The models said that deaths could be 1-2 million by doing nothing, which would be a 4-8x increase vs. doing what we're doing (with mixed compliance).

Bottom line: this is unchartered territory for all of us. But it's definitely not the flu. My wife's co-worker (in her 40s) just spent the last month fighting for her life in the ICU, and she's now been able to recover enough to be sent home on oxygen. Younger people are surviving, but many are facing long-term lung damage and scarring that doesn't happen with the flu. The long-term implications of this are unknown, obviously, but many of them will become high risk of COPD and other serious health issues.

In NYC, the number of people dying in their own homes rose by 10x when the virus exploded. Many of the bodies sat for 24-48 hours b/c coroners were overwhelmed, and almost none of them had COVID tests. The suspicion is that many/most of them were COVID victims, but their cause of death could not be determined. In other words, for every conspiracy theorist saying to follow the money and connect the dots, there are cases like this that would likely drive the mortality rates higher.

TonyKgull, I'm with you. There are plenty of other places to discuss this subject. I have chosen to speak up b/c another forum member claimed COVID to be a hoax and nothing more than the flu, while all facts point otherwise. He's claiming a conspiracy within the country, while this pandemic is killing people throughout the planet. My wife and other healthcare workers see the effects first hand. And erring on the side of "liberty" does not mean acting at the expense of other people's liberty. Choosing not to wear a mask or social distance is the same as me deciding to disregard speed limits, stop signs, and red lights b/c they infringe upon my liberty to get to my destination in the fastest way possible.

Sorry for extending the rant beyond just the numbers, but anyone not seeing these things is choosing not to look with open eyes. I don't frequent this forum as much as I used to, and I'd much rather be discussing guitars and music than debating a topic that too many people willfully choose not to be informed about. But I digress (again)....

TonyKgull,

I like your thinking- let me say this.
So called experts (as well as the msm media and ALL gov't's, world wide) have something to gain by distorting (or out right lying about) the numbers. That they are blindly trusted has roots in the same soil. What substance makes soil more fertile? Answer: Bull Excrement.

Trust your own math, not a so called expert extrapolation or the media and especially not a gov't employee, and ESPECIALLY an "expert" speaking on behalf of whatever/whoever.

Pseudo intellectuals (the afore mentioned 3)make the simple seem complicated. The true intellectual makes the complicated seem simple. 2+2 = 4 or somebody is lying. Extrapolation is projection- projections are biased and personal and tainted with preference. Numbers don't lie, but, liars use numbers.

I'll say this one last thing, which covers a multitude of errors- it's correct when I was told "we don't *need* to follow the money. Correct! "Needs" are basic; air, water, food, clothing and shelter with the last two being optional depending on climate and environment. EVERYTHING else is a want/desire.
Personally, I want the truth. My needs are covered. Experts want to appear as an intellectual. The media wants to appear to be something I've not been able to figure out and gov't's want to pretend they care about their subjects- gov't's care about their own perpetuation. Period.
Yes, that is semantics, but, don't think for a second that the afore mentioned three don't know and use it to influence- sometimes covertly/subliminally, sometimes blatantly, but, at the end of the day- words mean things- or they don't. So, again; Numbers don't lie, but, liars use numbers.

Garland, I can see your point as well.

You touch on a little known saying in the scientific field that goes like this:
"Science doesn't say anything, scientists do."

The point there is that people think that only religious scholars interpret data.  But that's not true, almost all data, in almost every field, is interpreted by the people looking at the data.  The people looking at the data are, ...well....people.  Some are going to have bias and be opinionated, and some are going to be more objective allowing the unknowns to remain that way and then you'll have everything in between those extremes.

It's good critical thinking to keep this in mind when anyone reports to you their "conclusions," even when based on a data set, but that doesn't excuse us (in my humble opinion) from our God given responsibility to treat all others, regardless of how they are acting, with the dignity, consideration and respect that we ourselves would like to have.


Another nickels worth. 
Hmmmm, gotta have a couple of coffees worth in the kitty by now!   

Garland, Well, I'm not a big country music fan (which is ironic cuz most people think my style is very folk/country!  LOL ) but that was a very cool song.  Thanks for sharing.

I love the line, "I'm not draggin' the whole world to hell man you're wasting my time."

Guy's gotta cool voice for country as well.

TonyKgull, well said. I can't comment on how the algorithms work b/c I'm not a statistician any more than I am an epidemiologist, although I work with analytical forecasting for a living (in other words, I apply the forecast results, but don't create the models). Sorry if this gets a little "nerdy." Different models produce different results, based on the algorithms used, so it's not uncommon to "back-cast" against actualized data, measure each algorithm for historical accuracy, and then weigh the more accurate algorithms to predict future occurrences. They may also use known growth rates from other viral outbreaks to develop a growth curve and then apply the actual outbreak against it to determine the amplitude. But I've never seen it explained, and there was no one centralized format, so it really came down to consensus forecasting.

The mortality peaks change as its people do a better or worse job with preventing (or "bending the curve"). For example, when NYC exploded, extrapolating those numbers nationwide would bring a very high number. All things being equal, CA should have 2x the cases and deaths b/c it has 2x the population (40m vs. 20m). But it bent the curve, deferred cases from peaking too fast, and as a result, far fewer people died. It's all about applying the best info we have to determine the best strategy and not disregarding the facts that don't fit their wishful narrative.

Dr. Neil deGrasse Tyson has said: "“The good thing about science is that it's true whether or not you believe in it. For me, I am driven by two main philosophies: know more today about the world than I knew yesterday and lessen the suffering of others." I agree with both of these statements. Just yesterday, I heard someone say (paraphrasing): "science always tries to disprove itself, and when it no longer can, science is the most accurate it's ever been, so far." Science doesn't have bias to fit its narrative; quite the opposite, in fact.

I haven't seen predictions off by 500%, but I'm sure that that was possible early on before there was sufficient data to make more informed interpretations of the data. You know the saying two is a coincidence and three is a trend? Sure, but does that mean that trajectory will continue, level off, peak, or enter some seasonal pattern? That's why we need scientists and experts.

TonyKgull, I appreciate the discussion, despite the tension with the other forum member, who seems hung up on a nationwide conspiracy within a global pandemic. Be good, stay safe, play guitar.